陕西省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的早期传播动力学研究Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province
白尧,刘昆,陈志军,陈保忠,邵中军
摘要(Abstract)：
目的探讨陕西省新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情早期的演变规律,为优化疫情防控策略、评估干预措施效果提供科学依据。方法收集陕西省2019年12月31日-2020年2月13日官方网络报道的疫情数据和中国疾病预防控制信息系统中的个案数据,同期人口数据来源于陕西省统计年鉴,采用Excel、ArcGIS软件开展COVID-19的描述性流行病学分析,采用Berkeley Madonna软件实验平台构建COVID-19疫情的传播动力学模型,分析疾病发生发展规律。结果陕西省截止2020年2月13日累计报告COVID-19确诊病例230例,罹患率约为0.59/100 000;男性发病数多于女性,40～50岁病例数最多;高发病地区主要分布在西安市、安康市、汉中市。SEIAR模型分析显示,陕西省疫情的基本再生指数R0约为2.95,模型结果2020年2月初是陕西省COVID-19发病的高峰期。结论陕西省COVID-19疫情呈快速扩散趋势,SEIAR模型预测的理论发病数可以为COVID-19疫情防控提供依据,遏制疫情蔓延。
关键词(KeyWords)： 新型冠状病毒肺炎;新型冠状病毒;流行规律;传播动力学模型
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金资助项目(81803289);; 军事医学创新工程基金资助项目(18CXZ011);; 军队生物安全基金资助项目(A3705031902,A3702031906)
作者(Author): 白尧,刘昆,陈志军,陈保忠,邵中军
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