牛玲娟;王玲玲;吕东霞;王亚敏;任梦园;

• 1:郑州澍青医学高等专科学校
• 2:河南省肿瘤医院普外科

摘要(Abstract)：

目的 分析食管癌(EC)患者术后肺部感染病原学特点及影响因素，并构建预测模型。方法 选取2019年1月-2021年1月河南省肿瘤医院收治的156例行手术治疗的EC患者，根据术后是否发生肺部感染分为感染组40例和未感染组116例，分析肺部感染患者病原菌分布特征，收集两组患者临床资料，多因素Logistic回归分析EC患者术后肺部感染的危险因素，建立感染预测模型，绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估模型预测效果。结果 40例EC术后并发肺部感染患者共培养病原菌56株，以肺炎克雷伯菌、铜绿假单胞菌、肺炎链球菌、鲍氏不动杆菌及金黄色葡萄球菌最为多见。多因素Logistic回归分析显示，年龄≥60岁、糖尿病、慢性阻塞性肺疾病、吸烟、手术时间≥4 h、术后置管时间≥7 d及白蛋白<30 g/L为EC患者术后并发肺部感染的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。根据多因素Logistic回归分析筛选出的EC患者术后肺部感染的独立危险因素构建模型，利用ROC曲线对模型进行内部验证，曲线下面积为0.831(95%CI:0.748-0.914),说明模型具有较好的预测价值。结论 EC术后肺部感染以革兰阴性菌为主，且年龄≥60岁、糖尿病、慢性阻塞性肺疾病、吸烟、手术时间≥4 h、术后置管时间≥7 d及白蛋白<30 g/L为EC患者术后并发肺部感染的危险因素，以上述因素为基础构建的预测模型对于EC术后肺部感染的风险预测具有指导作用。

关键词(KeyWords)： 食管癌;术后感染;病原学;肺部感染;临床特点;危险因素;预测模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 河南省社科联项目(SKL-2019604)

作者(Authors): 牛玲娟;王玲玲;吕东霞;王亚敏;任梦园;

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